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The report that Joe Nathan has a torn elbow ligament is awful news for both him and the Minnesota Twins, but unless you’ve already drafted him already or count on him in your keeper league, I still wouldn’t panic here. He’s a closer. There are 30 of them today, and by midseason a third of those will change. Yes, Nathan was one of the best closers for the past six seasons, a rock at an often-problematic position, but as always, someone else will step up. The Twins will survive. Fantasy baseball will survive.

That’s because Jon Rauch is going to step in and be this season’s David Aardsma. Yes, I believe that.

Mock if you like, but a year ago at this time, few knew who Aardsma was, and even fewer believed he’d end up with 38 saves. We didn’t know for sure he was the Seattle Mariners’ closer until April had begun, after most drafts had been completed. At least in this case Nathan won’t be tempting us into late-March. He’s done. Move on. Don’t draft him at all in one-year leagues or keeper formats, and I say that with confidence. Maybe in 2012 we’ll look at him the way we do Billy Wagner today.

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